CREDIBILITY AND LIMITS OF EMISSION FOR EXTERNAL DEBT FROM THE ASPECT OF EXPORT CAPABILITIES OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ABROAD

Jadranka Đurović Todorović, Marija Vukovic

DOI Number
10.22190/TEME1701091D
First page
091
Last page
104

Abstract


The objective of this paper is to explore the possibility of an external debt of the Republic of Serbia in terms of its export potential. The regression analysis data was conducted for the period 2001-2012 years in two cases: (i) for evaluation equation of export demand and the evaluation equation interdependence of the GDP and (ii) the real effective exchange rate in the Republic of Serbia. The results show that, with real rates of economic growth in the country (ranging from -1.8 to 3%) and the real rates of economic growth in the countries where the Republic of Serbia exports (ranging from 0.2 to 2%), the external debt can be in the range between -0.43% for 2.09% per annum. This means that the share of foreign trade deficit in the GDP in the Republic of Serbia, with the rate of the GDP in these intervals, bold move between  -0.43 to 2.09% per annum, and not to increase the share of external debt in the GDP.

Keywords

credibility, solvency, borrowing, export, GDP.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Ali Abbas S. M., Bouhga-Hagbe J., Fatás A.J., Mauro P., & Velloso R.C. 2010. “Fiscal Policy and the Current Account”. IMF Working Paper, WP10/121.

Acharya V., & Rajan R. 2011. “Sovereign Debt, Government Myopia and the Financial Sector”. NBER Working Paper 17542.

Baldacci E. & Kumar S.M. 2010. “Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields”. IMF Working Paper, WP/10/184.

Celasun O. & Kang J. Sh. 2006. “On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions”. IMF Working Paper, WP/06/182.

Cherif R. & Hasanov F. 2012. “Public Debt Dynamics: The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks”. International Monetary Fund, WP/12/230.

Cohen, D. & Villemot, S. 2015. "Endogenous debt crises”. Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.51(C), pp. 337-369.

Cohen D. & Valadier C. 2011. “40 years of sovereign debt crises”, CEPR Discussion Papers 829.

Combes J. L. & Saadi-Sedik T. 2006. “How Does Trade Openness Influence Budget Deficits in Developing Countries”? IMF Working Paper, WP/06/3.

Dewachiter H. & Toffano P. 2012. “Fiscal Activism and the Cost of Debt Financing”. International Journal of Finance and Economics, No.17, pp.14-22.

Dias D., Richmond C. & Wright M. 2011. “The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data at Face Value”? NBER Working Paper 17551.

Debrun X. & Kinda T. 2013. “That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization”. International Monetary Fund, WP/13/125.

Dippelsman R., Dziobek, C. & Gutierrez-Mangas, C. 2012. “What Lies Beneath: Statistical Definitions of Public Debt”. International Monetary Fund, Staff Discussion Note SDN/12/09.

Eusepi S. & Preston B. 2012. “Debt, Policy Uncertainty, and Expectations Stabilization”. Journal of the European Economic Association , No.10(4), pp.860-946.

Greiner A. 2012. “Economic Growth, Public Debt and Welfare: Comparing Three Budgetary Rules”. German Economic Review, No. 12(2): 205–222.

International Monetary Fund. 2013, Public Sector Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users.

Kumhof M. & Laxton, D. 2009. “Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits”, IMF Working Paper No. 09/237.

Kirsanova T. & Wren-Lewis S. 2011. “Optimal Fiscal Feedback on Debt in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities”. The Economic Journal, 122 (March), 238–264.

Kumar M. & Woo J. 2010. “Public Debt and Growth”. IMF Working Paper 10/174.

Kumhof M. & Laxton, D. 2009. “Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits”. IMF Working Paper No. 09/237.

Reinhart C. & Rogoff K. 2011. “A Decade of Debt”. NBER Working Paper 16827.

Reinhart C. & Sbrancia B. 2011. “The Liquidation of Government Debt”. NBER Working Paper 16893.

Švaljek, S. 2003. “Croatia’s capacity to finance its fiscal deficit”. Croatian Economic Survey, No.5, pp. 119-154.

Tanner E. 2013. ”Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed”. IMF Working Paper, WP/13/89.

van der Kwaak C. & van Wijnbergen S. 2013. "Long Term Government Debt, Financial Fragility and Sovereign Default Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-052/VI/DSF 55.

Wijnbergen S. & France A. 2012. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in a Stochastic Environment: 200 Years of Dutch Debt and Deficit Management". Economist, vol. 160(3), pages 219-236.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.22190/TEME1701091D

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


© University of Niš, Serbia
Creative Commons licence CC BY-NC-ND
Print ISSN: 0353-7919
Online ISSN: 1820-7804